April 20, 2026

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THE WOUNDED GULF

The deathly rattle of missiles and drones may have eased following the April 7 announcement of a two-week ceasefire by the principal combatants of the 39-day US-IsraelIran war. The truce was hammered out hours before President Donald Trump's deadline-- to obliterate "a whole civilisation"--was about to expire. Yet across the Gulf, there is little illusion that this tenuous pause will translate into lasting peace. The scale of disruption in the region has been unprecedented in recent memory. It has laid bare the Gulf's vulnerabilities, damaged its economic engines, and punctured its carefully cultivated image of stability in ways that may take years to repairFrom Saudi Arabia to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar to Oman, and across Bahrain and Kuwait, the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) find themselves confronting the same unsettling reality--that the war may not have been theirs, but its consequences are. As one expert bluntly puts it, the conflict has already "destroyed years of careful investment in the security and prosperity" of these states. The ceasefire, therefore, is not an end, only an interlude. And what it reveals is a Gulf that is wounded, wary and recalibratingIf the Gulf states bore the brunt of the cost of war, it was because a beleaguered Iran adopted a high-risk, twopronged strategy to combat the conventional military superiority of America and Israel, prevent the collapse of its internal regime and retain its nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions. Its first weapon was the Strait of Hormuz, the

BJP UPS THE ANTE

On April 2, Amit Shah was at a rally in Bhabanipur where he struck a markedly measured tone. Gone was the fire and brimstone of 2021, when the Union home minister and BJP No. 2 had predicted over 200 seats for the party (in the 294-member assembly). This time, seeking support for leader of the Opposi- tion and party candidate here, Suvendu Adhikari, Shah scaled the target down to "at least 170 seats"Still, even if the rhetoric appeared tempered, there was no doubting the confidence behind it. The BJP in Bengal, long criticised for its fragile organisation, believes it has rebuilt itself from booth up. Adhikari's second nomination from Bhabanipur (he's also contesting from Nandigram), where he's taking on chief minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chairperson Mamata Banerjee in her backyard, was obviously meant to signal this aggressive political pushFor years, the BJP began with a disadvantage in Bengal. Roughly 30 per cent of the electorate comprises Muslims, a demographic that has consolidated behind the TMC. This effectively meant the BJP started many of the contests one step behind. But its deeper weaknesses lay elsewhere. Even in Hindu-dominated regions, the party often lacked booth-level strength. The 2021 assembly election aftermath, especially the post-poll violence, exposed this fragility. The leaders who had parachuted in from other states had left soon after the polls, and the local leadership was inaccessible. Many BJP grassroots workers felt abandoned; the psychological impact was severe. Morale dipped. Networks collapsed. Yet, paradoxically, the party's vote base did not entirely erode. In the 2023 panchayat elections, despite widespread allegations of violence again, the BJP won over 9,700 gram panchayat seats (over 15 per cent of the total 63,000-plus seats). It signalled something important--a segment of the electorate continued to back the BJPTThe Bansal Blueprint he man tasked with the state unit overhaul was party general secretary Sunil Bansal, who had been appointed central observer for Bengal in August 2022. His predecessor, Madhya Pradesh leader Kailash Vijayvargiya, had been a controversial figure. The latter's strategy of inducting TMC defectors and giving them tickets got much flak within the party, and he even took a hit for the organisational disarray and the 2021 lossBansal's approach was different. For months, he travelled across Bengal, holding meetings, understanding factional dynamics and mapping organisational gaps. The real push, however, came after the 2024 Lok Sabha election. In October