February 23, 2026

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THE GREAT OPENING UP

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi picked up the phone to speak to US president Donald Trump on the evening of February 2, it was arguably the biggest foreign and economic policy call he would make. It marked the final act of a carefully choreographed tightrope walk to pull off an economic coup akin to what Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao and his finance minister Dr Manmohan Singh achieved in 1991 when they ushered in transformative economic reforms. In the preceding months, Modi had painstakingly worked to build momentum for what could be India's greatest international trade outreach since IndependenceIt would culminate in India signing trade deals with a host of nations whose combined GDP stands at $60 trillion (Rs 5,440 lakh crore)--roughly half of the global GDP. These mega deals signal the crystallisation of a new trade doctrine: that India is no longer hedging between openness and protectionism; that it is consciously preparing to compete with, and alongside, the world's most demanding economies; and that, after decades in which a large domestic market allowed Indian industry to remain inward-looking and comfortable, there is a pressing need, as one expert put it, to rewire India's growth model to place manufacturing, exports, and global integration at its core.

A New Rafale Deal

At A RECENT EVENT IN NEW DELHI, AIR CHIEF MARSHAL A.P. SINGH pointed out that without a strong military, other instruments of national power, like economic heft, lose relevance. The Indian Air Force (IAF) chief was hinting at the `elephant in the room'--the alarming decline in IAF fighter aircraft to 29 squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42. With its main regional adversaries China and Pakistan modernising their fighter fleets, Indian deterrence is waning. Now, to remedy the situation, the Ministry of Defence is working on a proposal from the IAF to acquire 114 (mostly) `Made in India' Rafale fighter jets under the Multi-role Fighter Air- craft (MRFA) procurement programme, to be built by the French firm Dassault Aviation in collaboration with Indian aerospace firms with some transfer of technology. Of the 114 aircraft, India plans to acquire 18 in a fly-away condition, or buy them off-the-shelf. The entire deal is estimated to cost Rs 3.25 lakh crores ($36 billion). The selection announcement could be made during French president Emmanuel Macron's February 19-20 visit to India. The IAF has 36 Rafales in its inventory, while the Indian Navy has ordered 26 aircraft carrier-compatible Rafale MarinesChristopher Clary, a non-resident fellow at the Washington DC-based Stimson Center, says that while India has a qualitatively impressive air force, it "faces a quantitative disadvantage against Chinese airpower, and that disadvantage is growing. Rafale helps to stave off the trend"However, a large deal like this takes time to fructify. The Defence Procurement Board, headed by the defence secretary, cleared the project on January 16. On February 12, the Defence Acquisition Council, chaired by defence minister Rajnath Singh, gave its nod to the MRFA programme, naming the Rafale in the Acceptance of Necessity. Now, the road is clear for negotiations on cost, technology transfer, indigenous content, delivery schedules and domestic partners. The agreement would then require political clearance from the Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by PM Narendra Modi. Experts say even after an announcement, the final contract could take a year or more to be signedThe actual delivery of aircraft is another matter. Given that Dassault has commitments to deliver Rafales to other foreign air forces, even the first of the 18 off-the-shelf aircraft would arrive only around 2032. The domestic assembly of the remaining 96 Rafales--depending on factors like setting up of assembly lines and production of indigenous content--would start yielding the first aircraft only around the same time.