September 07, 2026

-

Premium

WARNING SIGNALS

Just this May, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared more invincible than ever in his third term, as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a landslide victory in the West Bengal election. Not only was it a historic first for the BJP in a key state of the east, it also capped a string of impres- sive wins the party had registered in assembly polls in Bihar, Maharashtra, Assam, Haryana and Delhi after a setback in the 2024 general election.The Bengal sweep saw the BJP and its allies extend their rule to 22 of the country's 31 states and Union Territories with legislatures. In doing so, the party appeared to have shaken off the uncertainty triggered by its failure to secure a majority in the Lok Sabha election, when its tally of 240 seats fell 32 short of the 272 needed for a simple majority, forcing it to rely on its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners to form the government at the Centre.So, the Modi government wasn't exactly prepared when a series of adverse circumstances put both the prime minister and the ruling party on the back foot. Modi would increasingly find himself caught between a rock and a hard place--or as the Hindi saying goes, aage kuan, peechhe khai (a well ahead, a ditch behind)--both at home and abroad.Just as the BJP celebrations in Bengal were reaching a cre- scendo, trouble began brewing for the Modi government. The leak of the question paper for the 2026 National Eligibilitycum-Entrance Test (NEET) for medical seats, held on May 3, forced the Union education ministry to cancel the exam. It gave the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), born of an offhand remark, the perfect opportunity to organise a massive protest at Jantar Mantar, which would culminate in the resignation of Union education minister Dharmendra Pradhan.Scarcely had that crisis receded when inflationary pressures began to mount again following the breakdown of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, prolonging their debilitating standoff in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing up crude oil prices for India. Adding to the government's concerns are the threat of El Niño and the prospect of erratic rainfall, fuelling fears of a sharp dip in agricultural output.POLY-CRISIS IMPACT ON THE PM The impact of this poly-crisis on the popularity of the prime minister and the ruling party shows up vividly in the latest india today-CVoter biannual Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll. According to the survey, were a Lok Sabha election held now, the BJP would win 261 seats, 11 short of a simple majority on its own. That is a drop of 26 seats from the January MOTN, which had projected a far more comfortable tally of 287 for the BJP. More disconcertingly for the party, the poll indicates that without its victory in Bengal,

STILL ON A PLATEAU

The Opposition in India has far more political room today than it did six months ago. What is not clear is who will benefit from the drop in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ratings. In the August 2026 edition of the india today Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey, Modi's score on the preferred-prime-minister question saw an almost six- point dive, from 54.7 per cent in January to 48.7 per cent now. Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi, however, has barely moved, from 26.6 per cent to 27.1 per cent. The gap between them has narrowed, but largely because Modi has lost support. For the Congress, this is the uncomfortable part of the MOTN findings. Yet, Rahul remains the Opposition's most acceptable national face. Asked who should lead an Opposition alliance, 29 per cent chose him, almost exactly where he was in January (28.6 per cent). But look at who comes in second. Kollywood superstar and Tamil Nadu chief minister C. Joseph Vijay, with no previous track record, debuts at 12.2 per cent, well ahead of veterans such as Trinamool's Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal (Aam Aadmi Party) and Akhilesh Yadav (Samajwadi party). In the PM question too, Vijay gets 9.2 per cent, second only to Rahul among Opposition figures.Vijay's arrival is therefore more than a curiosity. A new face is attracting more acceptance than leaders who have spent years building parties, governments and national profiles. It would be premature to treat this as transferable electoral strength, but it certainly points to an appetite for a fresh Opposition face.The contrast with Mamata and Kejriwal is striking, especially since political and electoral setbacks have diminished their national heft. In February 2024, Mamata had 16.5 per cent support as the best Opposition alliance leader; Kejriwal had 17.4 per cent. They are now at 8.5 and 7.5, respectively. Yet their decline has not produced a corresponding boom for Rahul. The Opposition space remains fragmented, no one is dominant.Rahul's personal performance numbers are better than his leadership preference numbers. As LoP in the Lok Sabha, 48.2 per cent now rate him `outstanding' or `good', up from 44 per cent in January, while the combined `poor/very poor' rating fell from